Bear Market Call on Target: What's Next?

All major indexes closed 20% down from previous highs in record time.

It took just a few days of consistent plunges for all three major market indexes to redeem my bear market call. All declined 20% or more from their previous highs in just a matter of days from my prescient market call on this platform.

What’s next?

Today’s futures showed each of these indexes jumping 2.5% to 3% before the market open. As I write this, we are see a big technical bounce from the lows. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials are ahead more than 3.5% and the other indexes are doing the same.

Hope Springs Eternal

All major economists from all respected institutions agree with my analysis. There are no winners in a trade war. It is evident from the cataclysmic market reaction the last few days, traders and investors alike agree as well.

Only a brief visit to the Smoot Hawley tariffs of the 1930’s would let even the casual observer understand, tariffs are disastrous for world trade and consume pocketbooks.

Today’s technical bounce from the lows are based on the hopes that “more than 50 countries have called” the president seeking to negotiate these ruinous tariffs. Japan has been praised by the secretary of the treasury for engaging in talks with the president. Israel’s prime minister, Netanyahu made his bid yesterday. Vietnam offered to lower their tariffs to zero.

If solid progress can be demonstrated, even with just a few countries, President Trump will be able to declare victory and the markets, worldwide, will breathe a sigh of relief. Markets want nothing more than a return to normal, just assessing company profits and earnings and making prognostications on those alone.

Time Will Tell

We’ll know at the close of trading today whether this positive move can hold and give us an indication that we’re out of the woods. However, if we once again swoon before the days is done, we’ll know that we have more pain to endure before this bear is done mauling our portfolios.

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Best,

the author

George Schneider, M.A

Editor and publisher, Retirement: One Dividend At A Time

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Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I have no knowledge of individual investor circumstances, goals, and/or portfolio concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks mentioned or recommended.

Disclosure: I am long all RODAT Portfolio names. The Portfolio continues to build dividend income with reliable, dependable equities which have long histories of increasing the dividend.

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